The role of Photovoltaics towards 100% Renewable Energy Systems

Authors:

Brian Vad Mathiesen, Andrei David, Silas Petersen, Karl Sperling, Kenneth Hansen, Steffen Nielsen, Henrik Lund, Joana Brilhante das Neves

The report “The role of Photovoltaics towards 100% Renewable energy systems – Based on international market developments and Danish analysis” focuses on the contribution of solar photovoltaic in a fossil-free energy scenario in Denmark, as well as the transitions that are necessary in the building sector to support this change.  In summary, it consists of:

• A review of global trends on the development of costs and capacities for PV;
• The expected future developments of PV installations in Denmark and the past development
• An energy system analyses of the role of PV in Denmark;
• An analysis of the potentials for rooftop PV in Denmark using GIS (Geographical information systems) divided upon ownership, municipalities and building sizes;
• Comparison of land use and renewable energy from PV and wind power;
• An international review of global trends for public regulation and support schemes;
• A historic review of public regulation for PV in Denmark and the effects on PV capacity development;
• Case studies for the economics of PV in Denmark for different stakeholders;
• A discussion and evaluation of different support schemes and PV market construction in Denmark;
• Recommendations and ideas for new public regulation for PV in Denmark.

You can download the report from the following links:

• Full report with English Executive Summary
• English Execute Summary
• Appendices Report (including maps and PV potentials by municipality)
• Solceller i Danmark (Danish Pamflet)

Acknowledgement: This report was partially financed by the projects BIPV Quality Cities and Low Cost Active House BIPV, both financed by the ForskVE program, granted by Energinet.dk and administered by EUDP.

This report has been prepared and edited by researchers at Aalborg University.

Abstract

For many decades, solar photovoltaics has been labelled as an expensive technology with low potential of expansion. In the recent years, this technology experienced a fast increase in capacities correlated with an abrupt decrease in costs, which could make photovoltaics have an important role for the future energy mix. The purpose of this report is to describe what will be role of photovoltaics in a future 100% renewable energy system in Denmark towards the year 2050, but also to propose how the future public regulation schemes should adapt to intake the correct type and capacity for PV.

The report builds on a literature review of the global and Danish trends in capacity, costs and types of support schemes, but also develops a GIS and energy system analysis supported by a set of economic calculations to inquire on the recommended pathway for the future investments in photovoltaics in Denmark.

The review and analysis are focused on the integration of photovoltaics from a system perspective, analysed in the light of socio-economics. By building on this approach, a set of recommendations is proposed, which are structured on the system benefits and feasibility of photovoltaics, the land use and not the least on public regulation schemes and gradual increase in capacities.